Macro Principles - Tuesday, March 24, 2009 2:11 - Comments

Pace of change is accelerating: what if there is no equilibrium?

THE GIST

Gist: The historical pattern of change has been one of disruptive changes followed by stabilization periods – punctuated equilibrium. The Equilibrium paradigm is the most used by executives, strategists, etc. Even in a punctuated equilibrium paradigm, there is a reversion to equilibrium after disruption, thus making it the basic assumption for future scenarios.

The technologies (digital storage, transmission, computing power, etc.) powering today’s disruptive change however show no sign of delivering less than exponential performance gains, thus making a reversion to equilibrium not in sight. So what if we have shifted into a world where the pace of disruptive innovation waves means there is no longer an equilibrium possible?

Using this constant disruption paradigm would make the vast majority of the tools, frameworks and other lenses used today obsolete.

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